War and peace

 (Originally published in The Times of Israel)

I spent the morning with hundreds of others at the hostage tent on Aza Street near the Prime Minister’s house watching on a large screen as the live hostages were released. It was two and a half hours of anxiousness, relief, and elation. I then sat at a coffee house patio where everyone was in a celebratory mood. Right next to it is a storefront synagogue from which you could hear the sounds of prayers and songs of Hoshana Rabbah, the seventh and last day of Sukkot.

Adding to the poignancy of the moment, tonight is Erev Simchat Torah.  It was on Simchat Torah two years ago that Hamas invaded, raped, tortured, and kidnapped innocent civilians in what their delusional leaders and supporters thought would be the beginning of the destruction of Israel and the genocide of its inhabitants.

Next: the return of the bodies of 28 innocent hostages murdered in captivity. This will be very tough emotionally on the entire country, made even more so by the fact that  Hamas has already violated parts of the deal regarding this process. After that should be the disarming of Hamas, who are already reasserting their control in areas where Israel withdrew.

They are  brutally murdering anyone they label “collaborators” and anyone else they perceive as a potential threat to their rule.  Hamas is intentionally sending a message to Gazans: we’re still the power. Defy us and you and your family are dead.

If Hamas is not disarmed and completely taken out of the picture as envisioned by President Trump’s plan, and if the Palestinians do not give up the dream of destroying Israel, all of the flowery words about hope and a different future will be for naught. We will see more violence directed against Israel and, consequently, more misery and suffering for the Palestinians.

Today we celebrate. But there remains many difficult challenges ahead.

While diplomacy played a key role in getting the hostages released and the 20-step process endorsed by several key Arab nations, it is clear that we would not have reached this point without firm military action taken by Israel, often condemned by much of the world.

The key: the bombing of a building in Doha, Qatar, targeting Hamas leadership. While it failed to take out the leadership, it sent a clear message to the Arab world:  You are vulnerable, and we will target you if you harbor terrorists.

The message was received.  Within a few weeks, Hamas agreed to release the hostages.  This demonstrated once again what I have long contended:  Qatar and other Arab nations could have pressured Hamas to give up the hostages long ago, and the Western world could have successfully pressured the Arab world to force Hamas to do so.

But the West did not have the stomach to put the necessary pressure on the Arab nations.  Such action may have caused the price of fuel to increase.

Some have referred to the deal as a “peace” deal. The President has declared the war over. One might argue that this somehow makes the arrangement a “peace deal.” This is ludicrous. Hamas will not voluntarily disarm and give up control, and no nation other than Israel will use force to disarm Hamas.

French and British mothers are not going to allow their kids to die doing it. The Arab nations are afraid of their “streets.” There is no scenario under which the America First President will put an American soldier in harms way for Israel.  And there is no way Israel would want an American soldier to stub a toenail on its behalf.  The blowback would be devastating to the Israel-U.S. relationship.

So, unless a miracle happens, Israel is going to be forced into disarming Hamas. How Netanyahu does that in light of Trump’s declaration that the war is over is anyone’s guess. If Israel does it, the world, including the U.S., will come crashing down on it.

If, on the other hand, Israel does not do it, we are likely right back with Hamas terrorizing Israelis and Israel responding with intermittent wars as we had in past years.  And the suffering for people on both sides of the border will go on.

Bottom line:  There is justifiably great joy today.  There is, or should be, great worry for tomorrow and for the future.

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A historical first:  A group that was supposedly the victim of a genocide dickered for over a week over the terms of the deal to stop the alleged genocide, while the country that supposedly perpetrated the genocide agreed immediately to halt the genocide.

Hamas just released casualty figures for their dead between from July 10, 2023 until now.  Their own numbers:  Total dead: 67,173. That figure includes around 25,000-30,000 armed combatants.  That leaves 37,173 to 42,173 “innocent” deaths. Out of about two million people.  If Israel was trying to commit genocide, they should get an F- at it.

There was no genocide or mass starvation.  Take a look at the pictures of the Gazans, including children, celebrating the peace deal.  And take a look at the well-fed Hamas members who stole food shipments from Gazans while not allowing them to take shelter in the 500 kilometers of tunnels built with foreign funds under the nose of UNRWA (United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees, the only permanent agency for “refugees” for the only group for whom refugee status passes from generation to generation in perpetuity).

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Cynicism alert:

Prime Minister Netanyahu declined President Trump and President al-Sisi’s invitation to attend the summit of Arab and European nations in Sharm-al-Sheikh meeting to plan for the next steps that will hopefully lead to peace and to the rebuilding of Gaza.

Israel has yearned for years to be accepted as part of the Middle East.  The idea of publicly meeting with a host of Arab and Muslim countries would normally be something a prime minister, particularly this one, would jump at.  Yet Netanyahu is not going.

His stated reason:  tonight’s and tomorrow’s Simcha Torah/Shemini Atzeret holiday.  It is true that Israeli leaders historically do not travel on Shabbat and holidays.  It is also true that Israeli leaders make exceptions for crucial matters like war and peace.

It is also true that the Netanyahus, who are not Orthodox Jews, have been known to extend official trips into weekends so they can enjoy themselves in places like London and New York.  It is also true that there have been credible reports of them eating at non-kosher restaurants on some of those weekends.

So Netanyahu’s sudden respect for the holiday is highly suspicious.  The more likely explanation for Netanyahu declining the invitation is, shockingly, politics.  He wants to avoid being forced by Trump into making concessions that will cause him even more trouble with his right-wing coalition members than he is already experiencing as a result of agreeing to the deal.

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Headline:  Trump and Netanyahu prove Clinton right, Obama wrong.

Prime Minister Netanyahu’s war goals included the elimination of Hamas.  He has now agreed to a ceasefire and, according to President Trump, the end of the war, with Hamas very much still in existence.

Prime Minister Netanyahu has pledged that there will not be a Palestinian state (although way back in 2012 he indicated a willingness to accept one under strict conditions).  Yet, the 20-step deal provides for the possibility of a path to a Palestinian state.

President Trump got the Prime Minister to agree that ultimately Israel will not remain in Gaza, in direct conflict with the objectives of  the Prime Ministers’ far-right coalition partners.

How did President Trump convince Prime Minister Netanyahu to make these concessions?  By adhering to President Clinton’s prescription:  Stay close to Israel, support it, instill confidence in Israelis that you’ll have their back, and they will take steps that they might othewise be unwilling to take. Clinton knew history, and he tried to understand and empathize with Israel.

President Obama explicitly stated his belief that the best approach was to put distance between Israel and the U.S., and he acted on that belief from virutally his first day in office.  He had a great confidence in his approach, to the point of arrogance, but little knowledge of and appreciation for Israelis and the region. As a result, he spent years banging his head against the wall when it came to the Israel-Palestinian divide.