THE WINDS OF WAR

I am afraid that we are headed to war.  We being Israel, and we being the United States of America. 


Not against each other, heaven forbid.  Not even together against another country. 

No, it's more like what an elderly friend, colleague, or relative--in other words, I can't remember who--used to say when people asked if we knew each other:  "We went to different schools together."

Israel and the U.S.--we've been to different schools, but we're learning the same lesson together:  when it comes to standing up to the bad guys, you have to, well, stand up and push them back down.  Otherwise, they think they can get away with it, and they keep doing it.

For Israel, do not expect it to trade prisoners to gain the release of the three boys recently kidnapped.  There have been over a dozen kidnapping attempts since the beginning of the year.  This one is in the news because it succeeded.




The Palestinians believe kidnapping works because Israel gave up over a thousand prisoners for the release of Gilad Shalit.  They openly look to and cheer for obtaining another "Shalit."




It appears that srael is going to break them of this practice.  We may not find the boys alive, but it is becoming clear that the IDF intends to upend life in the territories in its efforts to do so.




Add to that the continuing rocket attacks from Gaza aimed at innocent civilians in the South.  While these attacks are largely ignored by the world media, they cannot be ignored by the residents trying to live normal lives there.




Eventually, the actions in the West Bank and the rockets in the South, along with Israel's response, will erupt into war.  I expect the world to pay attention at that point because it will be time for the UN, the EU, the Arab League, and all the usual suspects to condemn Israel's aggressive actions.  Count on the Obama Administration expressing its concern and urging all sides to use restraint.




For the U.S., sometimes you must play the role of savior and world power even when you are tired of it.  Our desire to recede from that role in the Middle East may be coming back to haunt us in a big way.

PROMISES, PROMISES

by Alan Edelstein


"Have you seen it?"  "It's unbelievable!"  "Startling!" "I've never seen  stuff like this."   "You have got to get it!"


This is about all I heard a few months ago from many of my American Jewish friends who are interested in Israel and the Middle East.   One exclamation reflecting astonishment after another, backed up by a unified choir of praise and wonder from pundits and reviewers.


One would have thought that someone discovered that Moses had a sixth book, or perhaps that Sports Illustrated had put out a gold-emblazoned 50-year compilation of the best of the issue everyone anticipates but no one reads.


The only hint that they were talking about something that was not wonderful and miraculous was that the exclamations often also included comments such as "We were terrible."  "How could we have done this?"  "I'm ashamed."


It turns out many of my friends and acquaintances, along with the professional reviewer and pundit classes, were hyperventilating about the recently published My Promised Land: The Triumph and Tragedy of Israel, by Ari Shavit, the left-leaning columnist for Haaretz, Israel's well-known left-leaning daily newspaper.


What got them so excited when there have been so many other books about Israel and the region?


All my friends and acquaintances mentioned to me was Shavit's characterizations of how we Zionists wiped out Arab villages, took their lands, and made the Palestinians into the downtrodden, victimized refugees they allegedly are today.


Several of the excited ones specifically mentioned Chapter Five, in which Shavit recounts his version of how and why the Zionists allegedly designed and implemented a plan to throw all Arabs out of the city of Lydda.  It probably didn't hurt that an edited version of Chapter Five was published in the The New Yorker, which is edited by Shavit's good friend, David Remnick.


That, of course, got the chattering classes chattering to the uber-degree, and the book seemed to be touted just about everywhere.  A slam on the Zionists?  Home run.  In The New Yorker?  Grand slam!

THE "POOF" MOMENT

I did not have high hopes that much, if anything, would come out of the latest quasi-negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians.

Anyone with an ounce of knowledge of the conflict would know not to have much hope that this dispute is going to be resolved anytime soon.  Still, those of us who truly desire a solution and who are willing to compromise, we still hope.  As the saying goes, you gotta have hope.  Even if it's audacious. 

I have previously lamented, some would say bitterly ranted, about how President Obama and Secretary of State Kerry, wittingly or unwittingly, do and say just about everything possible to encourage the Palestinians to believe they need not make concessions and to ensure that negotiations will fail, that Israel is blamed for the failure of negotiations, and that Israel is undermined in the court of world opinion. 

(See, for example, What In The World, Birthday Wishes and a New Jersey Gangster's Threats, and It's The Bomb!)  

In the wake of the apparent demise of the talks, the Secretary continues his virtually 100 percent record in this regard.  Although the State Department subsequently, post-headlines, backed off slightly, the Secretary initially laid the blame for the current failure on Israel's doorstep. 

The Secretary said that Israel's refusal to release the fourth batch of terrorist prisoners and its announcement of "700 settlement units in Jerusalem" was "poof," the end of negotiations.  But why were those actions the cause of the breakdown?  Why did they constitute the "poof" moment?

Because the Palestinians decided they were reason enough, or an excuse, to walk away from negotiations. 

Why was Abbas making it clear that he intended to negotiate until the fourth batch of prisoners was released and then to quit and to go to the UN and other international bodies not the "poof" moment that caused the breakdown?

Why was Abbas and his associates repeatedly, clearly, and unequivocally stating that they would never recognize the right of the Jews to a nation not the "poof" moment that caused the breakdown?

EHUD, ARNOLD AND MY PICTURE GALLERY

Yesterday was a good day for justice in Israel, although it was the final blow to my admittedly anemic celebrity picture gala.  I'll sacrifice for a good cause, and former Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's conviction and hopeful exit from the public stage is a very good cause indeed.

I was involved in California politics for 30-plus years.  Virtually everyone with that kind of a record (yes, some would argue, sentence) has walls full of pictures of them with a panoply of politicians, officials, sports heroes, and Hollywood stars or wanna-be stars that the person met along the trails. 

Not me. For whatever reason, that picture gallery decorating approach never appealed to me.  My offices had pictures of sailboats, mountains,  and kids.  The stars were ones I never met:  Koufax, Drysdale, a circa 1920 Fenway shot.  I did have one of those famous pictures of the Big Three, Roosevelt, Stalin, and Churchill, at one of those once far-off locations that we only knew about because of 10th grade world history.

That was it.  My gallery consisted of my kids,  inanimate objects,  and mostly real famous dead guys.  Except for one.  I once accompanied the CEO of a client, a California start-up, to a conference featuring then Trade and Industry Minister Olmert and former California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger.  The CEO, his wife, me, and one or two others had a picture taken with the Minister and the Governor. All smiles and happiness.

Even I, disinclined as I was to clutter the office with smiling pretend best friends, could not resist hanging a picture of me hanging with the celebrity action-hero governor of the biggest state in the Union and a future PM of The Promised Land.  What could top that?  A picture with Ben-Gurion?  Lady Gaga?

As we were arranging for the framing of the picture, it just seemed like the CEO, his wife, and the one or two others were cluttering things up, distracting from the real focus of the picture, extraneous.  My wife or the framer (not me!) suggested a little clip job was in order. 

ALL THE NEWS. . . .EXCEPT SOME

If a rocket lands in a desert and the networks don't report on it. . .

CNN International is a marvel of a television network.  As I write this Wednesday night 60 rockets have been shot from Gaza at Southern Israel, targeting civilians.  But here's the top news as reported by CNN:

1.  Two buildings blown up in New York, apparently due to a gas leak.

2.  The continued search for the lost Malaysian plane.

3.  Demonstrations in Turkey focused on the death of a 15 year old injured in the crackdown by the increasingly repressive Turkish Prime Minister Recep Erdogan nine months ago.

4.  Ukraine and the upcoming referendum scheduled by Crimea.

5.  The South African murder trial of "the bladerunner" Oscar Pistorious.

All worthy of top-of-the-news coverage, except perhaps the Pistorious trial.  But 60 unprovoked rockets targeting civilians in a regional hot spot? 

 Nada.  Nothing.  Zip.

But running below the reports:  "Stayed tuned for these and more international stories."  I did.  They didn't.  Of course, this is the network whose regional base is Abu Dhabi, and whose stories are often done in collaboration with one or another Gulf nation or Gulf-owned business.

WHAT IN THE WORLD?

What in the world is President Obama doing and thinking?

Is President Obama single-handedly writing the book on how to ensure that the Palestinians and Israelis do not make peace, or has he put together the worse group of advisors in U.S. history?  Frankly, I'm baffled. 

Despite a right-wing coalition and heartburn from his own Likud Party, Prime Minister Netanyahu has halted settlement construction for nine months, endorsed a two-state solution, released murderers of civilians, and most recently, indicated that he is willing to continue negotiations on the basis of Secretary of State Kerry's proposed framework, albeit with reservations.  

On the other hand, President Abbas has reiterated that he will not accept Israel as a Jewish state, that he will not give up the "right-of-return" for millions of people who never lived in what is now Israel, and that he intends to stop negotiating once he gets the last of the murderers he wants released. 

Yet, in a scenario strikingly similar to when President Obama ambushed Netanyahu on settlements several years ago and thereby destroyed any chances for progress on peace for quite some time, the President in his interview with Jeffrey Goldberg of Bloomberg once again laid all the burden and blame on Israel and Netanyahu just as the Prime Minister was on his way to meet with the President and address the annual AIPAC conference. 

As David Horovitz, the Editor-in-Chief of The Times of Israel, made clear in an appropriately sardonic and pointed manner, it is one hell of a way to welcome an ally, to bolster confidence, and to provide the undergirding for making tough, life-or-death decisions. 

If the President and his Administration are truly interested in a peace deal and not in just assigning blame if a deal does not happen, then it is simply unfathomable that this is the strategy they have come up with. 

Birthday Wishes and a New Jersey Gangster's Threats

by Alan Edelstein

 

I celebrated my birthday last week.  With friends and family visiting from the U.S., it seemed more like an all-week affair rather than a one-day celebration.  Out for jazz one evening, several evenings out for dinner and dessert, a walk through the Old City and some time at the Wall, an afternoon of wine tasting in the Jerusalem hills.  All and all, a fun time and a nice reminder of the delights of contemporary Jerusalem and the surrounding area.

My birthday wish?  Easy:  I wish that Ministers Bennett and Yaalon and a few others would stop throwing personal barbs and insulting Secretary of State John Kerry, and I wish that Secretary Kerry would stop giving them every excuse possible to do so.

 

Bennett and Yaalon?  They are just beyond any sense of respect and dignity when it comes to how one addresses the chief of foreign affairs, even one you might vigorously disagree with, of the greatest power on earth and the one country that Israel so critically depends on.  Express your disagreements?  Sure.  Personally insult and make insinuations about motivations?  Beyond stupid. 

Kerry?  Needs to take some courses in diplomacy and in psychology.  Telling Israelis that they take the good life for granted, that they've grown complacent, that they don't know what is in store for them, that they are living in an illusion, is no way to influence or motivate them to take risks.  One doesn't have to be a genius, or even Secretary of State, to know that. 

Lately the Secretary has begun to resemble a low-level New Jersey gangster a la a James Cagney movie.  He never says he is going to burn down the building, or blow-up the car, or, God-forbid, harm the kids, but he seems darn close to saying that we'll have what's coming to us if we don't cough up the dough by Friday: