The deal and its prospects

(Originally published in The Times of Israel)

My reaction to the Trump-Witkoff-Blair-Kushner Gaza peace plan:  A huge feeling of relief and hope that our hostages may be released and the war may come to an end.  And an equally huge feeling of skepticism that it will actually happen.

The plan finally gives some hope for a better future after almost two years of anxiety, depression, and hopelessness.  At the end of a very long and windy road, it holds out a possibility of Gazans and ultimately Palestinians in general living in peace with Israel.  But it is fraught with possible pitfalls, both immediate and longer term.

Just a few of the major challenges:

--Hamas must release the hostages within 72 hours and must agree to disarm.  The hostages are their lifeline and bearing and using arms to kill Jews and to destroy Israel is their only purpose in life.  It is hard to see them abandoning that.

--Deradicalization of Gaza, which necessarily includes the giving up of deep-seeded and ingrained grievance, recognition of Israel's permanent position as a Jewish nation in the Middle East, and the abandonment of the dream of a Palestinian state "from the river to the sea and of a "return" to a place most, if any, have never been.

This is a major, if not the defining, part of the Palestinian identity.  To give it up is a very tall order.  Many students of the Middle East and of Palestinian society would say it is near impossible.

--Netanyahu's politics:  After decades in public life and 18 years as prime minister (continuous since 2009 except for 18 months), is there anyone who knows exactly what Netanyahu's bottom-line position is on Israel and the Palestinians?  What we do know is that he will say and do just about anything to stay in power and out of prison.

Ironically, Netanyahu's desperation may now be helpful in getting him to stick to his end of the bargain.  His future political survival is now so dependent on President Trump he could be forced to adhere to Trump's plan even at the risk of alienating the extremists in his coalition.