Biden's terrible turn

(Originally published in The Times of Israel)

President Biden’s initial responses to Hamas’ atrocities demonstrated moral clarity, strategic acumen, and clear support for the victim of the attack, Israel.

Now, either from strategic errors or out of political concerns, or both, Biden is making some very serious mistakes, both on policy and politics.

The Biden Administration is wrong to pressure Israel not to pursue and eliminate Hamas in Rafah, the last refuge of the surviving four or five Hamas battalions.

Anything short of the total elimination of Hamas militarily will be claimed as a victory by Hamas, and it will be seen that way in the region.  Israel will have lost its most essential defensive tool: deterrence.

The attacks, which went on long before the October 7^th attack and which momentarily got the world’s attention on October 7th, will resume.  Israelis will lose faith in the army’s ability to protect them.

The south as well as the north of the country will be uninhabitable.  It will be the start of the end of the Zionist enterprise.  That is why some have referred to Hamas and the October 7^th attack as a “slow-motion existential threat.”

The Middle East nations that Israel has established relations with and those that are candidates for the future, all of whom look to Israel as a bulwark against terrorism and Iran, will view it as ineffective, a paper tiger.  They will start making their accommodations with Iran.

The more the Biden Administration pressures Israel not to invade Rafah, the more Hamas leaders Sinwar and Haniyeh and their fellow murderers think they can outlast the Israelis and survive as a force, and the more they will demand in exchange for the hostages.

It gives them hope that they will soon be arising triumphantly from the tunnels, instead of attempting to survive, isolated, thirsty, and starving in their tunnels.  The Biden Administration’s increasing pressure on Israel is the ultimate Hamas morale booster.

Through someone who had extensive interactions with him, Judith Miller provides insight into the psychology of Hamas military leader Yahya Sinwar: https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/israel-middle-east/articles/saving-sinwar-hamas-gaza

The Administration’s constant calls that Israel must protect civilians before any Rafah invasion is wrong.  Firstly, it implies that Israel does not do its utmost to protect civilians.  Every real expert in urban warfare says Israel has gone beyond what any other nation has done before to protect the innocent.

Secondly, the Administration’s position ignores what war is and what it entails. When a people’s leadership attacks another country and that country justifiably responds in defense, the attacking people, including noncombatants, face death and deprivation.

A war that does not produce civilian harm would be unique in world history and impossible to achieve.  To expect that of Israel is to guarantee that Israel will not win.

Secretary of State Blinken repeatedly states that there is another way to achieve Israel’s objectives, to prevent Hamas from being a threat to Israel.  He has yet to tell the Israelis or anyone else what this secret formula is.

Thirdly, the Administration’s calls for Israel to protect civilians wrongly creates the impression that Israel is responsible for deaths and destruction in Gaza. One party is responsible:  Hamas.

Hamas is the entity that built a subway system of terror under the civilians of Gaza.  It is the one that fires from the civilian population. Hamas is the one that intentionally tries to kill the innocent by firing missiles at civilians in Israel.

Hamas is the party that broke a ceasefire and attacked on October 7^th after intermittently breaking ceasefires over the years.  Hamas could end the war today by simply releasing all the hostages and laying down its arms.

To continually focus on Israel’s alleged responsibility to not pursue Hamas in Rafah unless it can assure the safety of the civilians turns morality upside down and helps ensure that Hamas survives and terrorism wins.

The Administration has now stepped up its pressure by not vetoing a UN Security Council resolution calling for an immediate ceasefire during Ramadan. Invoking Ramadan is ironic, almost comic.

Arabs fight and kill other Arabs during Ramadan.  Hamas attacked on a Jewish holiday, Simcha Torah, as Egypt and Syria attacked Israel on Yom Kippur in 1973.  (There is a reason it is referred to as the Yom Kippur War.)

The resolution calls for the release of all hostages.  The Administration is now spinning the resolution as requiring the release of all the hostages as a condition of a ceasefire.

One problem:  the resolution does not say that.  It also does not condemn Hamas.  The Administration knew that when it failed to veto the resolution.

The Biden Administration has also decided to involve itself in internal Israeli politics and to make Prime Minister Netanyahu the target of its wrath.

There is no doubt Netanyahu and his government are hugely unpopular, and for good reason.  They tore the country apart with their attack on the judiciary system.  They left the country completely vulnerable to the October 7^th attack.

They have long delayed passing legislation that would require the ultra-Orthodox community to share the burden of army service, a long-time irritant that has now become a total punch in the stomach as others face longer times in service to meet the IDF’s needs.

Despite this, it was a mistake for Biden to say that Netanyahu does not represent the people of Israel, thereby inserting himself into the middle of Israeli politics.

On the issue of going into Rafah and eliminating Hamas, Biden is clearly wrong in saying that Netanyahu does not represent the Israeli people.  While Israelis are agonizing over how this objective impacts the equally important objective of releasing the hostages, the overwhelming majority of Israelis recognize the need to destroy Hamas’ remaining battalions and the infrastructure that supports them.

The objectives and strategies of the war are not Netanyahu’s alone.  War policies are set by the war cabinet established after the October 7^th attack. It includes respected members of the opposition, and is backed by most Israelis.

While Opposition Leader Yair Lapid is not in the war cabinet, he shares its objectives.  There is no mainstream political party or leader that would be pursuing a different objective.

The Biden Administration knows this.

They also know very well that no one in the current governing coalition is going to bring the Netanyahu government down at this time over war policy (although some one might bring it down over the draft issue).

They also know that the only other way the government would fall is if a million people took to the streets, which they know, or should know, will not happen while a war is going on.

Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, who likes to remind himself and the rest of us that he holds the highest government position ever held by a Jew in America, went one step further.  He explicitly called for Israeli elections and the defeat of Netanyahu, although he conditioned it on the war getting near the end.

If anybody thinks Schumer’s remarks were not coordinated with the White House, I have a beautiful bridge I would like to sell them.

The Biden Administration and Senator Schumer know that when an outside government does this sort of thing, it causes some people to consolidate around their president or prime minister even if they normally would not support him or her.

People resent the interference and they rally around the flag, or the leader. Israelis are no different than other nations in this regard. In short, the Administration and Senator Schumer know that this interference could help Netanyahu politically.

But they did it anyway. They did it in a cynical attempt to pander to and decrease the screaming of the far left, anti-Israel faction of the Democratic Party, members of which are hounding them at every step.  They are afraid these members will vote for Robert Kennedy, Cornel West, or Jill Stein, or will simply stay home in November.

They will find that trying to appease the loud left that hates Israel (and that increasingly exposes their explicit Jew hatred) is a thankless task.  Going half way with this crowd—even going 90 percent—will not satisfy them.

What the Biden Administration’s political advisors do not seem to have factored in is that this works both ways. There are a decent number of independent voters and some Democratic voters, Jewish and non-Jewish, that, if upset enough with the Administration’s pressuring of Israel to not finish the job against Hamas, could sit on their hands, or write in a name, or even vote for Trump.

Israel may not even be a high priority issue for some of these voters. With the humiliating fiasco that was the withdrawal from Afghanistan, with Russia making inroads against Ukraine, with China constantly projecting its power, with the Houthis and Iran playing with the U.S. and its allies in the Middle East, there are some who might view the U.S. pressuring Israel to let up on the terrorists of Hamas as the final straw in a litany of demonstrations of American weakness.

The number of Henry Jackson Democrats left in the party could probably fit inside a phone booth.  But there are a fair number of them in the ranks of the independents in some states.

It is sad and disappointing to see a policy that started out so morally and strategically right take a turn that could very well spell moral and strategic disaster.  And for dubious political reasons, no less.

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For two thoughtful analyses of the situation and what a future Gaza might be, see these recent columns by New York Times’ columnists Brett Stephens and David Brooks:

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/19/opinion/gaza-war-palestine-arab-mandate.html

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/24/opinion/gaza-israel-war.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare