The deal and its prospects

(Originally published in The Times of Israel)

My reaction to the Trump-Witkoff-Blair-Kushner Gaza peace plan:  A huge feeling of relief and hope that our hostages may be released and the war may come to an end.  And an equally huge feeling of skepticism that it will actually happen.

The plan finally gives some hope for a better future after almost two years of anxiety, depression, and hopelessness.  At the end of a very long and windy road, it holds out a possibility of Gazans and ultimately Palestinians in general living in peace with Israel.  But it is fraught with possible pitfalls, both immediate and longer term.

Just a few of the major challenges:

--Hamas must release the hostages within 72 hours and must agree to disarm.  The hostages are their lifeline and bearing and using arms to kill Jews and to destroy Israel is their only purpose in life.  It is hard to see them abandoning that.

--Deradicalization of Gaza, which necessarily includes the giving up of deep-seeded and ingrained grievance, recognition of Israel's permanent position as a Jewish nation in the Middle East, and the abandonment of the dream of a Palestinian state "from the river to the sea and of a "return" to a place most, if any, have never been.

This is a major, if not the defining, part of the Palestinian identity.  To give it up is a very tall order.  Many students of the Middle East and of Palestinian society would say it is near impossible.

--Netanyahu's politics:  After decades in public life and 18 years as prime minister (continuous since 2009 except for 18 months), is there anyone who knows exactly what Netanyahu's bottom-line position is on Israel and the Palestinians?  What we do know is that he will say and do just about anything to stay in power and out of prison.

Ironically, Netanyahu's desperation may now be helpful in getting him to stick to his end of the bargain.  His future political survival is now so dependent on President Trump he could be forced to adhere to Trump's plan even at the risk of alienating the extremists in his coalition.

--Israelis:  Yes, we have our Greater Israel zealouts who hold inordinate leverage in our current political environment and who are not willing to give an inch, literally or figuratively. As for Israelis in general, i.e. those who are or who were willing to take risks and to potentially give up territory in the hopes for real peace, they have understandably been chastened and frightened by the continuing refusals by the Palestinians to say yes to compromise, by the Second Intifada, and now by Oct. 7^th.

Most Israelis are not tied to the idea of holding onto territory for a religiously inspired reason. Many still support separation in theory, but they are understandably very afraid of a Palestinian state as a launching pad for terrorism.

In order to turn Israelis around today, it would take a Palestinian leader standing up and saying unequivocally in Hebrew, English, and Arabic: 1. We accept that the Jews have a right to be here in an independent Jewish nation in what is now Israel. 2. We accept the fact that Jews also have a claim to Jerusalem and recognize we need to work out a suitable arrangement. 3. Any deal we make will be the end of all claims. 4. There is no right of return.  5. We renounce violence and terrorism.

And then their actions would have to reflect those words.  The chances of a Palestinian leader saying those words are zero to nil.  The chances of one surviving if he said those words are, sadly, probably also zero to nil.

The recognition of Palestine by European nations and the walk-out by U.N. delegates may have seemed like performative political stunts with no real impact.  But they do have a real, adverse impact on the prospects that this deal will get done and that it will be executed successfully.

Despite the self-inflicted disaster they see on the ground on which they live, Hamas and many of their Palestinian supporters see these stunts as proof that their long-term strategy is working, that their campaign to deligitimize Israel in the eyes of the world is gaining ground, and that they will ultimately be successful in destroying Israel.  It is hard for many Westerners to understand that there are societies and cultures for whom immediate comfort, even life, takes a back seat to an ultimate utopian dream.

For Israelis, these "gestures" are even further proof that we are alone, that much of the world would sit by or even cheer on our destruction, that we can depend on on one but ourselves for our survival, and that making any concession is a very risky, life-and-death proposition.

To say that these feelings and impressions held by both sides do not bode well for the prospects of the Trump deal coming to a successful conclusion would be a gross understatement.

If President Trump and his team can overcome these hurdles, the President would deserve the Nobel Prize he so evidently desires.  More importantly, he would deserve the unending gratitude of Israelis and Palestinians.

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I have long said that Qatar and other states in the region could have successfully pressed Hamas to release the hostages soon after October 7.  And I said the U.S. and the West could have successfully pressed Qatar and other Middle Eastern nations to press Hamas if they would have been willing to endure the economic consequences of doing so.

I also long said that conflicts and financial interests of Trump's chief negotiator Steven Witkoff, and those of Trump himself, meant that they would not put maximum pressure on Qatar.  The New York Times recently published a detailed report on just how extensive Witkoff's entanglements with Qatar are.  It is a sordid story.

My favorite line:  "'Qatar's investment decisions are kept entirely separate from diplomacy,'  [Qatari government spokesman] Mr. Al-Ansari added."

He went onto say that the tooth fairy is real.

Irony: Witkoff and Trump's conflicts could now keep Netanyahu from reneging on the deal or, as his habit, weaseling out of parts of it.  How? Trump can easily and dramatically change his position.  He is easily convinced.  Netanyahu is great at convincing.  However, with Witkoff and Trump's and their sons' financial interests in Qatar and the Gulf in general, they may be more resistant to Netanyahu's efforts.

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More proof that the world is morally upside down, as if more were necessary:  If one listens to CNN and others report on and analyze the negoiations over Gaza, one would think that the situation involves two normal parties bargaining and that both need to give things up in a rational effort to reach common ground. They might even put more of the burden on Israel.

One would hardly get the impression that one side is a murderous, terrorist cult that thinks nothing of raping and torturing women, kidnapping and beheading children, and keeping hostages under horrendous conditions.

No one expected the United States or any other nation to treat ISIS or Al Queda as legitimate parties to negotiate with.  But when it comes to a terrorist group and Israel, somehow rational, good-faith negotiations are expected.  The world is nuts.